Another AAPL trade

October 23rd, 2007

Well, I started trading a little in my non system account. I was running both accounts with my system, but that was just too much trouble, so I moved money and started trading what was left in the this account.

Well, AAPl earnings were about to come out, and i bought an iron condor. Crazy you think ? If AAPL has great earnings, I am screwed. Well, yes and no. While IC’s are long theta, they are also short vega. There is still a month left in the trade, and I probably, err , will not hold this one.

So AAPL’s volatility was up pretty high ~55%, from the usual 40%. So I wanted to sell, and we have vol crush afterwards. With such high IV, the profit margin widened signifigantly. My margin is $5 a spread, and if I can pull $0.7 out of the trade, I will be happy. 14% return in a day at least.

Iron Condor AAPL NOV07 200/195/155/150

That is ssot of a shorthand for:
BUY AAPL NOV07 200 CALL
SELL AAPL NOV07 195 CALL
SELL AAPL NOV07 155 PUT
BUY AAPL NOV07 150 PUT

Getting in Credit $1.65 ($0.75 on the call side,$0.90 on the put side ) risk $3.35, for a risk/reward of 49%. You may ask why is the risk not $8.35. The reason is for that to happen, AAPL would have to trade above 195 AND below 155 at the same time.

Exit : Close any side is less than $0.20
: Close when capture 60% of profit, ~$1.00, for a 25% profit.

Earnings came out after the close, and AAPL was trading up 10 points after hours. Still 10 points under my short side.

Will update this on Wednesday.


Option Prop Firms

August 30th, 2007

In my down time ( I only have one trade on right now ) I was looking at different option prop firms.

VTrader

jc trading group

Simplex

EchoTrade

DRO|WST

cassandratrading

Archelon


Why I don’t post as much anymore

July 9th, 2007

I don’t post because things are going well. Strange as that may seem.

My trading system is fairly automated now and I am only taking trades generated from my system. That makes blog posting rather dull.

My system said buy WMT at …. Who wants to read that ?

Until my system can also write comments, I don’t think I will be blogging about my system trades. It takes a lot of emotion out of trading which is a good thing.

I run my system, it spits out trades, and stop losses, and I place the orders. The AAPL vertical was my last non system trade. Now they are all system trades.

I am starting to trade more in the public view. I think I will move more to just blogging about options in general, and leave my stock/option picks to another website that shall remain nameless for now.


SUNW JUL 5 Calls, Someone Had A Bad Day

June 30th, 2007

I am trading SUNW June 5 Calls right now. Their prices have been over the place more than I expected. On the 26th something funny happened. Volume was up a lot. In the morning , SUNW traded more than 50,000 calls, mainly in a single trade. On the tape was a single print of 37,893 at $.16 from the ISE. It was reported that this may be a closing trade of calls bought on May 19th for $.58. If so, someone took a bath in SUNW calls. And , I am just thinking, what marketmaker is doing that kind of size? Had that market maker been buying calls to balance her position since May? Moving paper is moving paper after all.

The thing that three days later, SUN is at 5.30 and those calls are in the money. A difference of $454,716 at the last price. But since you have already lost $1,591,506, it would not be a good day anyway.

In the true spirit of disclosure, I got whacked on SUNW Calls also, but I will be ok. It actually moved my position to a better point looking at the greeks. Non greeks, not so much.


Why Do Websites Ignore Implied Volatility?

June 28th, 2007

volatility_poster.jpg I was Googling , and I came across this description of a bear call spread.    Bear Call Spread. I quote , bear call spreads are “nice low risk, low reward strategies”. Yes, until IV spikes, then the calls you sold as part of the spread rise.

I don’t disagree with the article. I agree with it except……they leave out any discussion of what happens when IV drops.

Sure, IV may not be a ‘intro’ options trading subject, but understanding IV is essential to understanding spreads. When you leave out even a mention of how the greeks affect a spread, you are doing traders starting out a disservice.

How many of us have gotten caught by guessing right on a stock direction, but getting IV wrong and losing money ?