I was reading over on IndexUniverse that “NYSE Arca Tech 100 ETF Offers Challenge To QQQQ”.
I really don’t know what the author was thinking. The NYSE Arca Tech 100 (NXT) is the old Pacific Exchange 100 Index. That is not the only thing old about the NYSE Arca Tech 100.
For Friday, I am looking at support at 43.15 / 42.75. I am looking to close another position at 43.15. Support at 43.95 / 44.25. The only report that may have a big impact is the Department of Commerce’s Construction Spending report reported at 10AM. So I am going to to be looking for a trade around then.
The construction spending report reports residential, non-residential, and public expenditures on new construction. usually, this is not a big deal, since monthly reports are subject to friggin’ huge revisions month to month.
The Personal income report comes out before the open. It is an indicator of future consumer demand. When consumers stop spending, it is bad for growth.
Mar 30 reports
8:30 AM Personal Income, Personal Spending
9:45 AM Chicago PMI
10:00 AM Construction Spending
Friday QQQQ support 43.15 / 42.75 Resistance at 43.95 / 44.25
For Thursday, I think all bets are off. I am looking at a tighter range around the market. I will probably take a directional position based upon which line ( support / resistance ) is broken.
There are some reports , Initial Jobless Claims , and Gross Domestic Product , that are coming out at 8:30, so I cannot expect that information will have been factored in as analyst will have time to read, studied and analyze the reports.
I am thinking more about 1Option’s position that the small trader should take directional bets. I cannot predict the market with 80% accuracy yet, so I have a while to go. But I do think I will have to go more directional to increase my returns. I would have made a lot more if I had bracketed my orders yesterday. When the market was making a triangle, one order above and below with a trailing stop would have made me some money.
I will have to practice those in my paper trade account today.
~squid
Thursday QQQQ Support 43.35 Resistance 43.90 / 44.25
Well, I put on a long Long strangle QQQQ @ 43.82 @ 10:00 A.M. right at my support level. They both had narrow spreads. The IV was not too expensive. I wanted some downside protection so that if things did not go the way I wanted, IV would not plummet. I also went for APR as the MAR options expire this week.
bought APR 45 calls - 15.68% IV - narrow spread
bought APR 43 puts - 18.37% IV - narrow spread
The 10:30 AM Crude Inventories report came out and the market did move. I was hoping that Bernake would come out with bad news and we would have a good day. However he didn’t, the news was middle of the road. I was looking at 43.55 as an exit point on the downside.
After his testimony started the market seemed to take a breather to decide on what to do, and the answer was to rally. SO I was back up a little, on the other side of the strangle. I was looking to see if I could bail around 44.35, but the market did not continue the rally and failed and fell back.
I wasn’t happy about this trade, so I bailed around 2pm. I broke even on this trade.
What I did see was that a bracket order would be better when the market starts to make a triangle pattern before news. Also, when the market is nervous, I think these can work out better.
The market held inside my support and resistance points all day. Did not see any good trades, so I remained on the sidelines.
We have lots of news that can move the market, so I will be looking for some event trading, other than that , i probably will stay out.
Wednesday Support 43.83 / 43.55 Resistance 44.35
~squid
