Well, the WWDC conference is Monday. Steve Jobs will make a speach about the next OS. I looked at the IV from the last developer confererence and that had a drop of about 5% the day of the conference.

AAPL IV is in the fortys. After his highness jobs gives his keynote, I think the stock will rally to the 130 level from 125, with a drop of IV of 5%~7%. The drop is not as big as earnings.

ARRGGHHH My computer power supply died.

Ok, I am back. I am soooo glad I have Apple Care. Ran down to the Apple store and they just replaced my power supply in 5 min, no questions asked.

So I have a spreadsheet that calculates all of this. I put in the IV, dates, etc and it returns the scenarios for a butterfly. I could use OptionVue if they made a OSX/Linux version. But they don’t. Rat Bastards.

So I am looking for a one-two day trade with a pretty wide range given a IV drop of 5%

Whatever, I won’t know until Monday morning opens. I will pull or not pull the trigger about 10:30 am EST.

Looks like a good trading opportunity will be coming up for AAPL options around the end of the month. The wall street journal is reporting the iPhone will be here 6/29.

Commercials Confirm June 29 Launch Date For Apple’s iPhone

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
June 3, 2007 9:27 p.m.
NEW YORK (AP)–Apple Inc.’s (AAPL) highly anticipated iPhone will be available June 29, according to TV commercials broadcast Sunday night and posted on the company’s Web site.

AAPL IV has bounced between 51.79% and 23.34% during the last year. The last big spike was around Jan earnings, then the big drop off. I picked the right stock and direction, but IV came to bite me in the ass. ( Yes, I lost money when IV fell )

AAPL: DAILY 1 YEAR VOLATILITY CHART

Apple has never really held IV’s over 45% for long, and this being summer ( Sell in May , go away ), I think high IV’s will be harder to maintain.

I will look to put on positions starting about the 22nd, and closing out about 10 days later. When IV hopefully drops. I am not betting on the stock price here, I am trying to play IV. I think a lot of people will bid up the price on the options, hoping for a move around the release of the iphone. They may get it, but whatever happens, IV will probably fall.